Black Friday is the middle of the story: what half a million preorders show about BFCM demand

Everyone plans BFCM around one weekend in late November. Our data says buying doesn’t wait for BFCM.

Last year we tracked preorders across the Shopify stores running on STOQ — over half a million orders, September 2025 through early January 2026. By the last week of October, weekly orders were already more than 70% above the September average. Black Friday was still four weeks away.

Here's the season, week by week:

Basis: 514,548 preorder orders placed, September 1, 2025 through the full week of December 29 (which runs to January 4, 2026), Monday–Sunday weeks, from a September 2026 snapshot. Orders drift a fraction of a percent between pulls as refunds and cancellations process. September baseline used in comparisons: weekly average 17,797 over the four full weeks of Sep 1–28 — the "week of Sep 29" straddles into October (five of its seven days are October days), so it sits outside the baseline window.

The curve, week by week

Short story: September is the baseline. Demand starts moving in October, picks up in November, peaks on Black Friday, then stays higher than normal through December.

September: the baseline

Nothing in September suggests what's coming. Preorder orders hold between roughly 16,000 and 21,000 a week — a normal range, with the usual week-to-week changes.

October: demand starts moving

October doesn't climb in a straight line. It opens with a jump — nearly 28,000 orders in the first week, past anything September did — sags back into the mid-20,000s through the middle of the month, and closes at around 31,000 in the week of October 27: more than 70% above the September average.

You don't even need the percentages to see what happened: every October week runs above every September week. Check the chart. And all of it happens with Black Friday four full weeks out and no BFCM event yet running to drive it.

Why would orders move a month early? Order data records purchases, not decisions, so it can't answer that directly. One plausible reading — offered as an interpretation, not a finding: customers may already be making buying decisions in October. A customer finds a product in October, saves it, compares it — and the ones willing to buy ahead of shipping show up in preorder numbers first. Whatever the reason, the pattern is clear: orders were already rising in October.

November: the climb accelerates — still before Black Friday

Early November takes one breather — the week of November 3 eases back below 28,000 — and then the rise resumes: past 31,000, then around 35,500 by the week of November 17. Black Friday was still weeks away, yet the rise was already underway.

Black Friday: the peak — and the middle of the story

Black Friday week hits roughly 65,000 preorder orders — about 3.6× the September average, and up more than 80% on the week before.

But Black Friday isn't the beginning of anything. It's the highest point of a rise that had been underway for at least four weeks — the middle of the season's story, not its start. Stores whose campaigns opened that morning were joining a rise that had already been underway for four weeks.

December: the surge ends — the season doesn't

Cyber Monday week holds near 49,000, still almost triple the September average. Then the surge unwinds — but watch where it lands. Through December the weeks step down from 33,000 to 28,000 to the low 20,000s, and the final week of the year comes back up to nearly 25,000.

December demand after the peak settles at roughly the levels we saw in late October, around 20,000–25,000 a week. The BFCM surge is temporary, but demand stays higher than September levels. Black Friday sits in the middle of a season that starts earlier and runs later than the event itself.

About the data

The analysis covers 514,548 preorders placed between September 1, 2025 and the end of the full week of December 29 (January 4, 2026), across Shopify stores running STOQ. Weeks run Monday–Sunday. The numbers come from a data pull in September 2026, so later pulls may differ by a fraction of a percent as refunds and cancellations process — the rounded figures used throughout this post are the ones built to survive that drift.

What the data means for your BFCM plan

Here's what that means for your BFCM plan:

1. Demand starts moving in October. A BFCM plan that activates in late November joins a rise that started a month earlier. Capturing that early demand — early-bird offers, preorders on inventory that hasn't landed — is the difference between opening the store before or after the crowd arrives. Preorders are a way to capture that early demand when stock is still on the water: the customer orders now, you fulfill when inventory lands. The details — cutoffs, campaign windows, limits — are in our seasonal preorder guide.
2. Black Friday rewards stores that were already selling. The peak sits on top of the October–November rise; stores that were already selling were in a better position to capture the rise.
3. The season outlasts the surge. December stays around late-October levels — the strongest September weeks — long after the peak. A campaign that ends on Cyber Monday walks away from a month of higher-than-normal demand; what changes is the urgency, not the existence, of the buyers.

Want to be open for the October climb this year? Install STOQ from the Shopify App Store

‍Already using STOQ? Here's the help guide: setting up a preorder offer to get your campaign scheduled.

FAQs

When does BFCM demand actually start? 

In our 2025 data, the move began in October: every October week ran above every September week, and by late October weekly orders were more than 70% above the September average — four weeks before Black Friday, before any BFCM event was running.

Should I launch my BFCM campaign before Black Friday? 

The curve shows orders elevated through October and November, so stores that open early sell into the climb rather than only the peak. The details are in our seasonal preorder guide.

Do preorders work during Black Friday and Cyber Monday? 

Yes — in our data, Black Friday week saw roughly 65,000 preorder orders, about 3.6× the September average, and Cyber Monday week held near 3×. Preorders let you sell the spike even when inventory arrives later.

How fast does demand drop after BFCM? 

The surge fades within weeks, but it lands high: December weeks settle around 20,000–25,000 orders — the level of the late-October ramp and of September's strongest weeks. The season steps down from the peak; it doesn't collapse.